Brian Westbrook: Worth the Money

The Birds and Brian Westbrook are at an impasse; neither wants to admit that they're made for each other and make a long term committment. Sounds like a bad romantic comedy. Westbrook has contract envy after seeing some of the big dollars the loose pockets around the league handed out to Deuce McAllister and LaMont Jordan, the Eagles see Shaun Alexander and Edge James dangled this offseason for second rounders. The bizarre state of the NFL's RB market isn't helping, but these two camps need to come together for the good of both.

The Eagles are very aware of the downside of BWest. He's feast or famine carrying the ball, with a 43% success rate last year and only 35% rate this year according to footballoutsiders (SR is a measure of how often a player gets the necessary yards or more on a given play. So on first and ten, that might be 4 yards, but on third and one, just enough to get the first.) Compare that to Edge James 57% last year and 59% this year, and you see what a difference there is. That means last year, Edge James made a postive play one and a half times out of ten more than BWest, at least a couple a game. Even though defenses are thinking pass the whole way against the Birds, BWest is still stoppable in the running game.

The other knock is durability. Westbrook went down two seasons ago with a fluke injury, and he is about as thick as the average back (alittle over 200 lbs on just a 5'8" frame). He carries the ball around 10-12 times a game. His 400+ career attempts would be a stiff season for some backs. Brian Westbrook is no more an injury risk than any other NFL player, and he might be less than RBs who have racked up many more miles.

So what's right with Westbrook? Why is he perhaps the perfect back for this pass happy team? Last year he had an 84% success rate in the passing game. Thrown to 87 times, he made 73 receptions. (again, stats courtesy footballoutsiders.com) TO meanwhile had a 61% SR and caught 77 balls out of 127 thrown to him. Granted Westie is thrown high percentage passes, but he turns them into explosive plays. And we all know thats as close to a running game as this Eagles team will get under Andy Reid.

It's in the interests of both to get a deal done. Westbrook is not going to make huge money on the open market, no matter how loose certain owners are with their cash. The Eagles can plug in Ryan Moats or some other RB and expect the same success. With TO almost certainly leaving at the end of the year, that's a concern. Bottom line to the Eagles and Brian Westbrook: get it done.

Teams The Eagles Don't Play: Buffalo Bills

I've always had a soft spot for the Bills, my mother's family is from Buffalo. I sat through four progressively more depressing Super Bowl parties, waiting for the Bills to pull one out. As tough as it is sometimes for Bills fans, they have to be given credit for being amoung the most diehard in the league. This year was one for optimism. An excellent defense, dynamic special teams, a stud running back, plus receiving corp. All the pieces except the big one that connects it all, QB. But the front office traded two picks to the Dallas Cowboys (those two? Julius Jones and Marcus Spears) to move up and acquire the QB of the future, right?

Four weeks into the 2005 season, the first he has started, and JP Losman is on the bench. Whose fault is that? Anyone who has seen him play would say Losman's, but this disasterous decision ultimately will fall at the feet of Mike Mularkey. And this decision has the potential to be catastrophic, with very little upside. The QB of the future, before being given a significant chance to develop, has been sat down. How's his confidence? I'm guessing low. Why would Mularkey do this? Does he actually think Kelly Holcomb is a solution? Holcomb was 5-9 as a starter for the Browns, leading them nowhere. He's 32, certainly no QB of the future. Trading a few weeks of Kelly Holcomb future for the confidence of the QB the franchise has invested so much in seems like Buffalo is ending up on the wrong end of this deal. Sad part is, it's a deal with themselves.

If Mularkey wants to blame someone for the rough start to the JP Losman era, he can look in the mirror. The formula this year was supposed to be simple: run the ball, control the clock, let the defense keep the team in games, and run the passing game through play action. Pretty familiar formula to anyone who has watched more than two games of football. Unfortunately, Mularkey has decided to pass more than run in three of the Bills first four games. Leading with the wrong foot, Mike. On paper, 103 passes to 97 runs looks like a good balance. 19 of those runs are Losman specials, though. So the play has run through the QB 122 times and Willis McGahee 79 times. That ratio isn't looking so good now.

To be fair, in game two the Bucs shut the run game down, and by the middle of the third the Bills were down 16-3 and forced to throw. The next week, however, Buffalo came out throwing, Losman dropped back on their first five first down plays. Thanks to some penalties, the Bills kicked two field goals on their first two drives. Down 14-6, Mike Mularkey finally committed to the run. Eight runs to three passes, ending in a McGahee eight yard TD run.

The next week the Bills came out running. Seven runs to three passes on the first drive, ending in a touchdown. After incompletions and an interception halted two drive, the Bills got the ball at their own thirty, down 3, with 5:30 left in the half. First down, incomplete. The Bills were bailed out on third down by a penalty. First down, pass -2 yards and a hold, total-12. A couple of successful passes later and the Bills had a first at the Saints 41. Incomplete. On those three first downs, despite having plenty of time on the clock, the Bills threw three times for -12 yards. Is it JP Losman's fault he is not being put into manageable third downs?

Down six in the fourth quarter Mularkey pulled his QB of the future for a QB who has neither past nor future. What a message to send the kid, and way to test his competitiveness, Mike. Holcomb was ineffective enough to win the starting job this week.

This kind of QB development is exactly how coaches lose jobs and franchises lose decades. If Mularkey finds the stomach to ride out the rough patches, he might find that QB of the future at the end of the rainbow. If he puts the franchises future in the hands of Kelly Holcomb, well, the end of that story is bleak. Take some antacid, Mike, run the ball, and resign yourself to the fact that kids make mistakes. You can either be coaching the Bills two years down the line, glad Losman worked those mistakes out years ago, or you can be watching Sundays on TV, wondering where the Kelly Holcomb era went wrong.

Matchups with the Chiefs

Pretty interesting game for the Birds this week.

The big matchup should be the Chiefs run game vs. Eagles D

-Looks like Willie Roaf might not play. That's great news, that guy is a beast who seals the end on those power sweeps like nobody else. He lets the G's pull and create mismatches. Without him, the Eagles quick ends can get involved more against plays between the hash and the sideline.

-The Chiefs will probably try to put a body on Trot every single run play. The worst case scenario for them is Trot blowing plays up in the backfield and Trent Green dealing with long yardage situations. If they do stick Trot, the OLBs will have to step up. With Tony Gonzalez out there, I'll be interested to see how much JJ lets the safeties up in the box.

-The D-line has had a few injuries and hopefully can hold up over the length of the game. The Chiefs will change speeds with Larry Johnson, so they will always have a fresh RB ready. How fresh the Eagles' front seven is in the 4th quarter will probably depend on if Andy commits to eating some clock.

To run some clock, obviously you can't expect Andy to commit to the run. What I think we'll see is alot of misdirection plays (screens, shovel-passes, counters) to take advantage of KC's aggressive and inexperienced LB's and get Westbrook touches without actually having to run too much.